A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
